Arab Uprising in the Middle East and its future prospectives

Arab Uprising in the Middle East and It s Future prospectives

Asmaiel Mersham

Middle East today presents a mosaic of various interests and cultures all mingling together to find their rightful place under the sun.

Middle East region is very rich, diverse and dynamic in history, culture and in the economy as well. The different characteristics of the most dictatorial regimes in the region are also diverse.

Middle East is made up of a population of about 465,263,512 (Est.2008) from 23 countries with Islam as the dominant religion (90%) and other religions being Judaism, Christianity, and others. Islam, with its two major denomination (shiites and Sunnis), is the predominant faith in the Middle East, thus practiced by most of the people residing in these countries.

There are a wide variety of ethnic or religious communities, sects and groups as minorities in the region: Alawis, Armenians, Assyrians or Nestorians, Bahais, Benei Israel, Christian Arabs, Chaldeans, Circassians, Copts, Druzes, Falashas, Karaites, Kurds, Mandaeans, Messianic Jews, Maronites, Muslim Brothers, Netorei Karta, Samaritans, Yezidis. There are also other groups like the Berbers and the Turkomans.

Following the definition of democracy (there are many definitions, one of them: The rule of majority and the right of minorities with the guarantee of individual liberty), which is mainly about political rights and civil liberties, we are led to raise some questions, so that we can predict the possibilities of successful democracy in the region in the future.
• Is democracy possible in the Arab world?
• How much is the level of support among the majority people for democracy?
• How strongly do the people reject the dictatorial system and want change toward democracy and believe that democracy is a suitable system for their country?
• Is democracy a universal value or there are some alternatives, which allow building up a “new brand local democracy” and will be inclusive of Arab traditions?
• IS Arab people can solve their diffirences in civil and peceful manner, in other words"from bullut to ballot"

To be able to address some if not all these curiosities we should examine the situation on ground in the Middle East region.

There are many obstacles for democracy to be installed in the Arab world: internal obstacles like, political division, militarism, hierarchy-bound society, religious division, social discrimination, tribal division, cultural division, patriarchies, regionalism, ethnic division, sectarian and other factions. There are many external obstacles as well like: Western interest in the natural recourses in the region (e.g. oil), the Israel-Palestine conflict, demographic and geopolitical position, Jihadist war and the war on terrorism, cold war arena, globalization etc.

On the other hand, while we examine the definition of dictatorial regime (there are many definitions, one of them: A regime in which a single leader or party exercises absolute control over all citizens and every aspect of their lives), we see that most of the regimes in the Middle East have been ruling for last five decades after ending forgone colonialism, in the form of Nationalist Authoritarian Military ”dictators” claiming to achieve social justice and liberate Palestine (for example, Jamal Abdel Naser, Anwar Sadat and finally Hosni Mobarek in Egypt; Moammer Ghaddafi in Libya; Hafiz al Asad, the father of the recent president Basher al Asad, in Syria; Abdul-Karim Qassim and then Saddam Hussein in Iraq etc). Interestingly, the kingdoms and the Shaikhs in the Middle East were doing the same business i.e. maintaining and legitimizing their power appropriated or misappropriated from their family, and sustaining their regimes by brutal and cruel treatment to their people.

These regimes played on the internal and external factors for decades to empower, maintain and sustain the status quo for as long as possible for them. Trying to keep the power within the tribe, region and family, they deprived their citizens of very basic human rights, dignities and hopeful life.
Elaborating a little on one internal factor i.e. religion, rulers in the Middle East exploit Islam for consolidating their power and regimes, protecting their policies, where the social characters of both majorities and minorities are tribal, family-based and authoritative. Poor education and high-level illiteracy contribute to the status quo. According to a study, about 70 % of the people were found to be illiterate. Through election Muslim rulers seize power and then marginalize the partners, legitimizing their actions according to Sharia law, as happened with Hamas. Coincidentally, the newly-bred fundamentalism was hostile to pluralism, justice and civil decency. Recently the most respected Shia leader Said Ali Sistani in Iraq said, “It is religious duty to go to vote”, not because he strongly believes in democracy but because he heard the occupation authority say, “the Majority rules” in Iraq, knowing that 60% of Iraqi is Shia; while the Muslim scholar Mr. Yousef Al-Garathawi stated that “Election is heretical.”
Likewise, when we examine one of the external elements i.e. the Israel-Palestine conflicts for decades that caused Palestinians a tremendous suffering, we see the support of USA to Israel on one hand, and the Arab authoritarian regimes’ use of Palestinian cause to empower and legitimize their rule on the other. The Palestinian cause as an emotional matter for Arabs and the USA hegemony in the region and its support for Israel have been used by these dictatorial regimes through propaganda to consolidate and legitimize their authoritarian regimes.
Today we witness the diverse forms of popular protests by the people in the Middle East, the Arabs uprising, who are fed up with the ill treatment of these regimes and were silenced for decades. Arab uprisings that have been reshaping the Middle East, in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain and other dictatorial regimes in the region, the stakeholders, the people should come and work together for a better future for all.
So far two dictators have been toppled, the others are on the list. It is a matter of days or weeks or months for sure, not years for most of these dictators, to be regarded as part of the past history of decades full of tyrannies and cruelties.
Today the people are facing a lot of challenges, the most important being the negative impacts of living under these systems for decades, which left behind the marks in every aspect of social, political and economic life that led to monopolized economy and marginalized society. All this produced societies that can be called “paranoid” countries. These challenges should be dealt with carefully if the people need to make a change from the old system to a new one where everyone will find her or his place for positive participation, not only to replace the faces of some dictators with those of others.
At this stage I think that most of the dictatorial regimes in the region will come to end, but it will be replaced by “élite electronic democracy” which is, to my understanding, another kind of “authoritarian system” or which, in the best case, will be a vulnerable democracy. We can see such examples in South Asian countries e.g. Pakistan, Bangladesh and so on. For sure a liberal democracy needs 2-3 generations to come with hard work and farm determination to achieve it.
The important achievements of this Arab uprising at this stage will be, on one hand, the breaking down the barrier of fear of the people and opening up hope and opportunities for new generation to come. On the other hand, it calls for political struggle in the society to replace the old system of monopoly and tyrant dictators.
In the coming days in the Middle East three powers are likely to rise in the political and social arena, first - struggle for power through political Islam, second - old regime elements alongwith nationalist and tribal elements, third and final - the real democratic elements, including civil society, democratic parties and minorities and others? The struggle sometimes takes the violent and military forms though, to achieve their goals, but the struggle mostly will remain the political one.
It has to go a long way to establish democracy in the Middle East. There will be need for positive contribution of international democracy assistance including educating, training and equipping the civil societies and the peoples, along with election monitoring and grants.
Conclusion:
Most regimes in Middle East are authoritarian, if not dictatorship, ruling for decades by fear and reward. The elites who rule in Middle Eastern countries used religious faith with ideology of nationalism for blinding people and controlling them, which was supported by the weakness of civil society in Middle East. The western powers’ supports for the ruling elites are clearly to cater to self-interest through exploitation of natural resources like oil and so on. Paradoxically, the same powers extend support in the name of fighting some suppressive and authoritative regimes, and turn a blind eye on human rights abuse in case of someother tyrant regimes in the region. Although from outside, the conflicts in the Middle East look different, but the real root is related to human rights abuse by authoritarian regimes that used Islam as a tool to consolidate their power and legitimize their regimes. Peace and prosperity will grow and solidified only when economic, social and culture rights for all are granted and protected.

It is time to diagnose the root causes of people’s suffering for addressing the issues in the Middle East from various angles, which has the most to do with the relation between Political Islam and Authoritarian regimes to make more room for people’s participation so that everyone will have an equal chance and a free choice to plan for their future and shaping their destiny.

It is time for the people in the Middle East to challenge the status quo i.e. their political leaders, religious figures; to take responsibilities, to put themselves in front of the realities and their obligations, with no more room for slogans and intimidations; but change is needed in the region for alternatives to build a society, enjoy a prosperous and peaceful region, so that all can live together enjoying social justice, human dignity, harmony and tolerance instead of dictatorship, and unnecessary and repeated provocative conflicts and wars.

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