How to deal with this pandemic

Mohamed Ibrahim Bassyouni
2020 / 4 / 10


This pandemic has many aspects, of course, the most important of which is the healthy aspect, followed by the economic aspect. In the ideal scenario, the authorities in each country choose what they believe to be the most successful strategy from their point of view, according to their circumstances, to reach the lowest mortality rate and the lowest possible economic damage while reaching the herd s immunity (the immunity of the 70% of the population). Since access to herd immunity through a vaccine is not available at the present time, the options available are-limit-ed, some of which are applicable and some that are not.

There is no dispute now that success is to achieve this option (in the ideal situation) the possibility that the 70% of those (who will have acquired immunity through contracting the disease) will be selected from the people who have the best chances of victory in that war with the virus and that they be supported with a service Medical available if they need it. The remaining 30% (who will enjoy herd immunity only) are among the groups most in need of protection such as the elderly and the sick (not from the VIPs of important politicians and economists) and this is what is now called settlement´-or-flattening the infection curve.

It is now widely agreed that all countries of the world need to "adjust the curve" by imposing social divergence. It is also agreed that the goal is to slow the spread of the virus so that the influx of floods from the numbers of patients does not cause the health system to collapse completely, as happened´-or-almost happened in Italy recently.
This means that society needs the epidemic to continue to spread, but at a low speed, until we gradually reach the 70% rate (this is of course assuming that immunity lasts for a long time, which is what we hope for but we are not sure of it yet)´-or-until the vaccine is produced.

The question now is: How long will this take, and how harsh should social restrictions be?
We must pray, pray, and adhere to precautionary measures and instructions, examination and test.




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