Iranian-Israeli aggravation in Syria

In Iran, heated discussions took place in private between the Supreme National Security Council (NSC) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on the situation of the Iranian military and Shiite militia units in Syria. The reason for these discussions was the recent increase in Israeli air raids on Iranian military facilities in Syria. The NSC has come up with a proposal to reduce the number of IRGC units in the SAR and redeploy a number of its units, including from Al-Quds.
The other day Damascus was visited by a representative military delegation from Iran for negotiations on this topic with the leadership of the SAR. In principle, the IRGC reacted with understanding to the proposal of the NSC, also because the partial redeployment of its units from Al-Quds would not weaken the position of the Iranian military in favor of Russia. At the same time, Iran is concerned about the conclusion of a deal with the United States on its nuclear program. According to Tehran, after the resumption of the negotiation process in Vienna, Israel decided to intensify air attacks on Iranian military facilities in Syria and Iraq.
Israel is seriously concerned that if the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program are successfully completed, especially in the format of the 2015 treaty, Iran will be able to develop it unhindered and further strengthen its position in the region. The Israeli leadership has great doubts that the current American administration of J. Biden is capable of applying adequate containment measures against Iran, therefore Israel intends to act independently in the interests of ensuring its own security without relying on the United States with regard to Iran.
At this stage, Israel is developing plans for air strikes on Syria and Iraq, similar to the Israeli actions of 1981 (Iraq) and 2007 (Syria). At the same time, Israel is going to resort to the tactics of delivering pinpoint strikes, the target of which should be Iranian scientists associated with the development of a nuclear program (this was the assassination of Mohammad Fakhrizadeh in 2020) and high-ranking Iranian IRGC officers in Syria and Iraq. According to European diplomatic circles, Israel intends to disrupt the Vienna agreement or, at least, "roll up" its progress and delay as much as possible the possibility of achieving positive results.
Some Western and Arab analysts believe that Israeli threats are largely related to Israel s desire to increase its requesting position in negotiations with the United States on the Iranian nuclear issue and thereby obtain from Washington new and larger funds for its defense needs. Israel is also escalating the situation in order to use the fears of the Arabian monarchies and the Levant for their security, strengthening its position there.
Israel has strong arguments not to trust the US policy in the Middle East, in particular in the Levant. In March 2019, President Donald Trump announced that the US-led coalition forces had done away with the Islamic State. Many experts in Arab countries and the United States themselves doubted the reliability of the information presented by Donald Trump, considering it to be another populist move by the American president.
The Americans believed the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), together with the Russian military, would finish off the remnants of IS in Syrian territory. However, over the past two years, IS has noticeably stepped up its activities in Syria and Iraq. Basically, the actions of IS were reduced to mining strategic transport arteries in Syria and Iraq. After the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, IS increased its attacks on the Syrian-Iraqi border, and attacks by the organization s militants on social infrastructure and places of worship have become more frequent.
A number of Syrian experts argued that IS could return to the idea of ​-;-​-;-creating a Caliphate in Afghanistan and neighboring countries. After the events of September 11, 2001 in the United States, organizations such as Al-Qaeda and others like it rejected the practical implementation of this idea as unrealistic. Although in a number of their documents the task of restoring the Caliphate is still outlined in the production plan without being tied to any specific dates.
Today, the main question is where the IS gets funds from for the purchase of weapons and ammunition, at the expense of what human reserves the organization replenishes the personnel of its units in Syria and Iraq. Characteristically, the activity of IS (possibly exaggerated) coincided with the recent decision of the US administration to maintain its military contingent in Syria and expand it to fight IS. In practice, this could mean the onset of a new stage in the struggle for Syria and Iraq between the United States and its allies, on the one hand, Russia and Iran, on the other. In light of the new transformations in the Levant, the fears and actions of Israel and Iran look very reasonable and logical.

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